This week, Iran suddenly attacked three neighbors in a ‘three front war’ style, making waves in the world. Within 24 hours after the start of January 16, Iran attacked the neighboring countries of Iraq, Syria and Pakistan.
In return, Pakistan also launched a missile attack on Sisan-Baluchistan province of Iran. It is said that at least two dozen civilians were killed in the latest missile attacks by these countries.
Just two days before Iran fired missiles at its neighbors, Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar had reached Iran. Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, who have been at war for almost half a century, were targeting Israeli ships crossing the Suez Canal and crossing the Mediterranean Sea and the Red Sea. An Indian oil tanker was also attacked by Houthi rebels.
In response, the UK and the US are carrying out airstrikes against the Yemeni Houthis in the capital Sana’a, the Houthi port on the Red Sea and Saada, which is considered another Houthi stronghold.
After the Iran-backed Yemeni Houthi rebels attacked their ship, panicked India sent its foreign minister to Tehran to plead with Iran. But when Jaishankar reached Iran, one has to understand India’s oil diplomacy to understand how the war between Israel and Palestine, two states on the shores of the land and sea, spread to the Red Sea.
In 1915, Iran signed a nuclear agreement with world powers America, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China. However, in 2018, the US pulled out of the agreement and is imposing a heavy embargo against Iran. Tehran is suffering due to US sanctions on the sale of Iran’s main export product, crude oil.
After the US embargo, crude oil producer Iran sought India’s support. India is also buying large quantities of crude oil from there.
During the visit of the Indian Foreign Minister, Iran has already given its taste. Ali Bagheri, Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs, said that if New Delhi wants, Iran will give India its first priority in exporting crude oil. Iran had also said that Iran would provide significant assistance in completing Chabahar port, which has Indian investment.
India’s oil diplomacy against neighbors!
India, which has not been able to maintain a dynamic relationship with its neighboring countries, has repeatedly caused tension in South Asia. Although it is the largest country in the region in terms of area, population and economy, India is unpopular among its neighbors due to its activities ranging from interfering in the internal affairs of its neighbors to transgressing its borders.
Another neighboring Asian country, China, has also been made a traditional enemy by India on the strategic front. Recently, due to its proximity to China, India has been alienating the Maldives and was trying to strengthen its position by adopting some conspiracy theory.
It was possible to attack the small island nation of the Indian Ocean, Maldives, only by attacking nuclear-armed Pakistan, which is a traditional enemy, from one or the other front. Therefore, it is not difficult to estimate that Jaishankar went to Iran to add a new plank to the regional tension, not only because the Huthi rebels attacked an oil tanker while taking a confrontation with the Maldives.
It has already been mentioned that due to US sanctions, Iran wants India to buy more of its crude oil. India also wants to raise Iran, which shares a border with Pakistan towards the Arabian Sea/Gulf of Oman, by adopting oil diplomacy.
Strictly speaking, there is no concrete evidence that India has provoked Iran to launch a missile attack on Pakistan by promising to buy more oil. However, what should be understood is that such matters in diplomacy are not done with evidence. It is seen in the results. Which is now in front of us. On the contrary, there are many grounds that can be said that India has negotiated with Iran to remind the Yemeni Houthi rebels in order to increase the purchase of crude oil. If we can guess what the other hidden Indian request might be, then Jaishankar incited Iran to fire missiles at Pakistan and make New Delhi comfortable on the front up to the Maldives.
In 2023 alone, India imported crude oil worth more than 157.5 billion US dollars. During that period, India imported 232.7 million tons of crude oil. The major exporters of crude oil to India are Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Russia and UAE. India has imported 58 percent of crude oil from the Middle Eastern region alone.
Recently, India, which has been buying maximum crude oil from Russia, is looking for an alternative seller when the price has increased. India, which has succeeded in buying oil from Russia, which has been banned by the US, is also trying to adopt the same strategy in dealing with Iran.
India has been importing large quantities of oil since September after Russia and Iraq provided crude oil at cheap prices. Compared to Saudi Arabia, these two countries sold crude oil to India at a cheaper price. Crude oil import from Russia to India increased to 18.3 million barrels per day in September alone. India also imported 900,000 barrels of crude oil per day from Iraq in the month of September. Since then, India has been importing a lot of crude oil from these two countries.
In this situation, it is understood that the Indian Foreign Minister, who arrived in Tehran, assured Iran by giving the example of buying oil from Russia, which suffered the American blockade. It is not difficult to understand that Iran, which is looking for a reliable oil market, also agreed to the bargain made by India.
India has fought four wars with Pakistan since its independence in August 1947 after the end of British colonial rule. Millions of people have died in the wars of 1947, 1965, 1971 and 1999. Last week, when Iran also attacked, it became easy for India to put pressure on Pakistan. If the tension with Iran is to increase, now it seems that Pakistan should also prepare for a two-front war with India on the east and India on the south-west.
Iran and Pakistan share a nearly 900 km long border towards the Gulf of Oman. It is said that various sponsored militant groups are active around this border region regarding the affairs of each other country and the entire region. Jaish Al Adal is one of them.
Name of this group surfaced after Iran launched a missile at Pakistan. In return, Pakistan said that even when it attacked Iran, it attacked its enemy’s base. After that incident, the tension between the two neighboring countries has increased to the point of withdrawing the ambassadors. It is seen that India’s ill-will and fraud will not succeed with the agreement reached between Pakistan and Iran on Friday to allow the ambassador to be reinstated.
