COP29: Negotiations Negotiations must break through the entrenched politics of fossil fuels

KATHMANDU, NOVEMBER 14: Amid mounting scientific warnings about rising temperatures, increasing greenhouse gas emissions, and the growing human suffering caused by climate catastrophes worldwide, the annual climate change conclave is underway in Baku, Azerbaijan. The 29th Conference of Parties (COP29) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) began on November 11 and will continue through November 22. The event has drawn over 51,000 participants, including heads of state, ministers, climate scientists, activists, and youth from UNFCCC member countries.

A recurring theme both in global leaders' speeches and at negotiation tables is "climate finance." Although climate finance has been discussed under various terms over the years, tangible results remain elusive amid global fossil fuel politics and increasingly severe weather events. The agenda gained prominence last year with the introduction of the Loss and Damage Fund and is being highlighted this year under the New Collective Quantified Goals (NCQG).

NCQG represents a more scientifically grounded approach to climate ambitions, addressing the needs and priorities of developing and least developed countries. It builds on the long-standing commitment by developed nations to provide $100 billion annually to support these countries, a promise claimed to have been met in 2022, though two years past the original target. Many of the most affected nations have criticized the delay, calling for greater transparency and clear action, leading to the planned implementation of NCQG in 2025.

President Paudel Highlights Nepal's Struggles

Nepal's President Ramchandra Paudel, leading the Nepali delegation at COP29, emphasized the urgent need for climate finance in his address to world leaders. He stressed the importance of operationalizing the Loss and Damage Fund and called for adequate compensation for climate-related losses, noting that financial support should come as grants rather than loans.

"As snow-covered white mountains turn into black rocks, the world needs to realize that the impacts are not confined to mountainous nations but extend to coastal areas as well," President Paudel said, urging the world to protect the Himalayas, often referred to as the "world's water tower." He highlighted that any threat to the Himalayas poses a risk to global water resources, necessitating united action. Additionally, the President called on industrialized nations to redirect funds from military spending to climate adaptation and mitigation efforts, securing a livable planet for future generations.

Like Nepal, many island nations and vulnerable countries shared similar grievances, criticizing practices that prioritize economic growth over environmental and social well-being. Scientific data showing rising emissions underscore a troubling gap between climate ambitions and actions. Reports emphasize that efforts so far are insufficient to maintain the 1.5°C temperature target set by the Paris Agreement.

Calls for Fair and Transparent Climate Finance

Emerging economies and developed nations have different perspectives on their roles and responsibilities. Developed countries argue that rising powers should also take responsibility for increasing greenhouse gas emissions and contribute to climate finance. However, emerging economies demand significant financial support from developed countries to implement climate actions. The debate has played out in previous negotiations, particularly over terms like "phase out" and "phase down" regarding coal use, reflecting the broader fossil fuel politics.

Despite some nations transitioning to green energy, oil remains a significant economic driver for many, sustaining geopolitical influence. The burden of climate extremes disproportionately affects poorer and least developed countries (LDCs), making collective bargaining crucial for achieving climate justice.

A Complex Negotiation Landscape

While the stakes are high, reaching a consensus at COP29 will be challenging. Many heads of state from major polluting nations, such as China, the United States, India, and Indonesia, are not attending, underscoring the difficulties of multilateral climate negotiations. According to the Associated Press, these countries represent over 42% of the global population, yet their absence is notable at a time of escalating weather extremes.

Climate change discussions continue in other international settings, such as the UN General Assembly and the Summit of the Future, emphasizing the importance of coordinated global action. The "Pact for the Future," adopted at the Summit of the Future in September, highlights climate change as a critical challenge disproportionately affecting developing countries and calls for accelerated commitments under the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement.

Concerns Over Trump's Return

As negotiations unfold, the potential return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency has alarmed conservationists and climate advocates. Analysts fear that Trump's policies could slow global progress on climate action, reverse the U.S. green transition, and prioritize short-term economic gains over long-term sustainability. Stephen M. Walt, a Harvard professor, has warned that Trump's approach may cede leadership in green technologies to other countries, like China.

Madhu Raman Acharya, Nepal's former Permanent Representative to the UN, believes that Trump's re-election would not impact the climate negotiations in Baku directly. However, Trump's policies on global affairs and critical issues like climate change could send ripples across the international community.